Government Cheese

Don’t use the word “recession.” Instead, stick with “shrinkage"
The economic statistics are becoming decidedly less positive,
As they adjust for an over statement
How many more land mines exist out there
No one knows or ventures to guess
Will there be a Nobel Award this time

Inflation caused by fiscal policy is another problem
That few seem to be mentioning
We will be seeing much more inflation caused by fiscal policy
Created in many countries around the globe
New inflationary problems will arise before employment begins to rise
The long term rally will begin long before economic growth returns
That is our best guess

This may be an occasion for governments to rein in
Out-of-control capitalism
There are opportunities for the left to explain
How the economic system works
An excuse for pursuing a neo-socialist agenda.
This will be my number one prioity
With the administration scrapping the original centerpiece
Of it’s rescue plan
And they are still calling it a weak economy
A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle

Inflationary economic contraction - tightening in financial conditions
Data is deciedly on the soft side
Tighter credit, declines in stock prices is creating some headwinds
To boost the economy while also containing inflation.
This is something almost impossible

Having blown fiscal policy on tax cuts ill afforded
And a war that can’t be paid for
And historically war has helped the economy
Fiscal policy is now.a ‘no-go’
And with using monetary policy alone, it is impossible
Inflation and unemplyment were not supposed
To occur at the same time
GDP = P x Q. Therefore ΔGDP = ΔP x ΔQ

Evidence of a broad global recession continues to accumulate
The economies of the entire group
Are contracting and will shrink
Projections point to a protracted downturn
Weekly jobless claims are a volatile statistic
The safest course is probably to assume
That this reflects a genuine acceleration

There were other signs of global slowing
Forecasting for reduced global oil demand
The largest economies in recession
And the strengthening dollar will likely
Hurt overseas business
Chaos, everyone for the lifeboats
The captain has been seen wearing a dress

Weaker than expected demand in all geographies and market segments
Precipitated by fall-offs in tourism and bananas
Panic when it was rumored that the price of rice
Had doubled at Wal-Mart
The Euro dives amidst evidence of Q3 economic contraction
This may not have the typical ‘V’ shape and last longer
This is a shape indicative of glaciations
The game has changed
Global warming during a new ice age
Ugh!

Lots of buyout debt is coming due
Many private equity firms face a refinancing wave
At a very uncertain time
Nearly 30 percent of big leveraged buyouts defaulted
We are most assuredly in some kind of
Worldwide production plateau at the very least
But we can look at the peak in oil production
As a harbinger of things to come
Exacerbating this scenario may be the need
To increasingly adapt to climate change
Just as the amount of available energy
Per unit of time diminishes

We will reverse our historical trend
To grow in pseudo-measures
Or learn to tweak for more positive indications
Then how shall we perceive this contraction?
What will life be like in a permanent decline
The magic of technology is losing it luster
And they promised it wouldn’t happen again
We have learned our lessons they said
Can it be endemic?
Is this long awaited avian flu?

Is the underlying value of money, energy
Isn’t that what technology means
Thus it will take more units of money
To buy the same unit of work
Individuals will not be able to afford stuff
That they previously bought

But unlike previous business cycle downturns,
This one is caused by reduction in energy for doing work.
There is no recovery phase people will have less
Because there is less to have.
What’s next?

Are we in the grip of a profound
Geopolitical contradiction
The current economic crisis will surely accelerate
And continue the erosion
Biggest monthly drop ever in futures trading

Aspirational qualities
Are not simply about convenience
Over populated neighborhood outlets
Consumers are feeling the credit crunch
Americans dove 15 billion fewer miles
No growth in oil demand in ‘09
Planning to cut 1.5 million barrels of production

Economic contraction is here
Which comes first
Value-added attributes
The pocketbook
Or Government cheese
Will we be seeing a huge paradigm shift?


QUOTE: In 1993 a study even found that people were willing to pay more for airline travel insurance covering “terrorist acts” than for death from “all possible causes”. Logically, that makes no sense, but “terrorist acts” is a vivid phrase dripping with bad feelings, while “all possible causes” is bland and empty – Daniel Gardner